¶MSR’s latest options. NASA’s new plan for restructuring the Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission is now targeting sample retrieval by a distant 2035-2039 timeline and proposes two options: the heritage sky crane used by Curiosity and Perseverance or a new commercial heavy-lift-delivered lander (full-length media call). The heavy-lift approach (potential partners: SpaceX or Blue Origin) would deliver a larger payload carrying the Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV) and systems to collect and transfer Perseverance’s 30 sample tubes. Whichever approach is selected, it would utilize a radioisotope power system (likely MMRTG) for reliability during Mars’ dust storms and a reduction in mission complexity compared with using solar panels. Both would still utilize ESA’s Earth Return Orbiter as well as a scaled-down MAV. The mechanism of retrieval of Percy’s 30 samples is also still an open question. With commercial costs estimated at $5.8–7.1B, and the sky crane option at $6.6–7.7B, NASA is planning to finalize the new mission architecture sometime in 2026 but will need significant funding to make it happen in any form, which the agency hopes is forthcoming from Congress and the new administration. To be honest, we’re a bit underwhelmed by these options, they don’t seem particularly different or more ambitious compared to previous plans and extend the timeline to a point where it is reasonable to imagine another nation (China) or program (SpaceX) beating MSR to the punch. |
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 | Percy snapped a picture of its sky crane during descent and landing in February 2021. |
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¶Short Papers (mostly 🪨💥🪨) - Three new studies suggest that 70% of the ~70,000 meteorites found on Earth so far came from just three recent collisions in the asteroid belt. These collisions, between chondritic objects at least 30 km across, occurred 5.8 million, 7.5 million, and 40 million years ago and correspond to the Karin, Koronis, and Massalia asteroid families.
- Simulations suggest Pluto and its large moon Charon may have formed during an icy collision where two bodies collided and stuck together, then spun apart into the current binary duo while maintaining their original compositions (paper). “Charon is captured relatively intact in this scenario, retaining its core and most of its mantle, which implies that Charon could be as ancient as Pluto.”
- Recent observations of how material falling out of Saturn’s rings (“ring rain”) alters the planet’s ionosphere suggests a rate of material loss l that puts the rings' continued existence at only about 100 million more years. 🪐
- An impact with an asteroid 20x larger than the Chicxulub impactor may have flipped Ganymede, the largest moon in the solar system, on its axis 4 billion years ago (paper).
- Ruthenium isotope ratios in strata from the Chicxulub asteroid impact, which helped finish off the dinosaurs, suggest that the impactor was a carbonaceous asteroid, not a comet, and formed outside the orbit of Jupiter (paper).
- But Chicxulub may not have been alone. Not one, but two asteroid impacts may have been involved in the demise of the dinosaurs (paper). A nine-kilometer-wide underwater impact structure off the coast of Guinea appears to be from the same era near the end of the Cretaceous period, 65 to 67 million years ago. The impacting object is estimated at 0.4 km wide (vs. 10 km for Chicxulub) with an impact velocity of 20 km/s. 🦕🦖☄️🌊
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¶Transporter 12. SpaceX’s twelfth iteration of its SSO rideshare launched yesterday. T12 clocked in with ~131 payloads making their way to orbit. A few highlights:- ISILaunch (37), Exolaunch (35), Impulse Space (4), and D-Orbit (~8) are involved with the majority of payloads, either as aggregators, integrators, space tugs, or separation systems.
- Two reentry capsules are flying onboard this mission: Ray from Inversion Space (50 cm test capsule) and Varda’s Winnebago-2 (which will re-enter and land in Australia this time for less regulatory friction and more future flexibility).
- Veery-0F: The next iteration of CareWeather’s in-development active radar weather satellite. Veery uses a very small scatterometer to measure ocean surface wind speeds.
- Forest-3 from OroraTech, a wildfire monitoring satellite, its importance underlined by the ongoing disaster in LA.
- Indian startup Pixxel’s first three hyperspectral satellites, billed as India’s first private commercial constellation.
- The domestically developed Earth observing MBZ-Sat from the Mohammed Bin Rashid Space Centre in the UAE.
- 36 SuperDoves and Pelican-2 from Planet Labs.
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 | Transporter 12’s payload fairing before mating, showing some of its ~131 payloads. |
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| ¶News in brief. New Glenn scrubbed it first launch attempt due to ice clogging a purge line (remember, it’s always ice) and skipped a second attempt due to bad weather—its next is Thursday ● After over a decade of cooperation, Slovenia joined ESA, its 23rd member state ● After some delay due to drift issues, the two spacecraft from ISRO’s SpaDex mission flew within 3 m of each other in their first trial docking attempt ● For the first time in four years, ESA’s annual budget decreased (down $112.6M out of $7.86B, so only a little) as Germany, Italy, and the UK cut their contributions by $440.3M ● Ligado Networks filed for bankruptcy citing ‘large operational losses’ from the U.S. government’s ‘unlawful taking’ of its spectrum rights, announced a spectrum deal with AST SpaceMobile to help with their $8.6B in debt, and sued Inmarsat for allegedly breaching their long-standing L-band spectrum partnership ● China launched the Shijian-25 on-orbit refueling mission to GTO ● A Chinese Jielong-3 solid rocket also launched from a mobile sea platform, successfully placing 10 Centispace navigation enhancement satellites into orbit ● The Indian government assigned rocket and propulsion expert V. Narayanan as the new chairman of the ISRO ● SpaceX set another booster reuse record with the 25th launch and landing of a Falcon 9 first stage ● Rocket Lab’s upcoming Neutron was selected as a launch services option under NASA’s Venture-Class Acquisition of Dedicated and Rideshare contract ● ESA’s BepiColombo flew by Mercury for its sixth time, approaching 295 km above the surface and completing its final gravity assist maneuver—in 2026 it will jettison the spacecraft transfer module and enter orbit as two spacecraft, the mapping Mercury Planetary Orbiter and the Mercury Magnetospheric Orbiter. |
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 | BepiColombo flew by Mercury on January 8th for its sixth and final gravity assist before entering orbit in late 2026. Shown here is Mercury's sunlit northern hemisphere. Smooth regions are areas where ancient lava flows have covered craters. |
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¶Etc.- We’re deeply saddened by the wildfires in LA. You can watch them continue to unfold on NASA’s FIRMS fire monitoring system, or check out this amateur open source analysis. JPL avoided getting burned, as did the Mount Wilson Observatory, but many folks employed at JPL and beyond lost their homes.
- Analysis of Kepler data on about 56,450 Sun-like stars observed that superflares—events a hundred times larger than the Carrington Event of 1859AD—occur on average once a century. Meanwhile, Carbon-14 analysis of tree rings and glacial samples suggests our Sun produces such flares on a timescale closer to once every 1,500 years. Either our Sun is pretty unusual (read boooring), or our C-14 data is lacking. Either way, understanding rates of superflares is critical, as such an event could be unimaginably devastating to our modern technological civilization.
- 415 years ago, last week, Galileo discovered Jupiter’s moons with a homemade 20x telescope.
- ‘After 60 years of spaceflight patches, here are some of our favorites.’ (Flight suit patches, not code patches.)
- A paper with the results of a single-blind test of nine methane monitoring satellites, representing both commercial and government satellites across five countries, showcased their effectiveness while also suggesting improvements.
- Fidelity’s internal valuation of Relativity Space has fallen from $4.5 billion in 2023 to about $100 million today. 📉
- ‘World's darkest and clearest skies at risk from industrial megaproject.’
- Watch supernovae flash like fireflies across the Universe.
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